SWOD48
SPC AC 230958
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2010
VALID 261200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM PATTERN ACROSS WRN/SWRN U.S. TO THE GULF
COAST/SERN STATES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THE TRACK AND AMPLIFICATION OF TWO
SEPARATE PACIFIC TROUGHS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MOISTURE RETURN/MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH THE
INITIAL TROUGH AFFECTING THE GULF COAST STATES DURING DAYS 4-5 /FRI
FEB 26-SAT FEB 27/. MODELS SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE RETURN MAY OCCUR
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYS 7-8 /MON MAR 01-TUE MAR 02/... ACROSS THE
SRN/CENTRAL GULF BASIN INTO FL. THIS COMBINED WITH A SECOND AND
POTENTIALLY MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS FL LATE DAY 7 INTO DAY 8. HOWEVER... MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING/TRACK AND OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
SUGGEST PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA FOR FL/SERN STATES.
..PETERS.. 02/23/2010
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