SWOD48
SPC AC 250959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST THU FEB 25 2010
VALID 281200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF/GFS DIFFER IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE DAY 3 SWRN STATES UPPER
TROUGH AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND THEN
THE GULF COAST STATES/GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL FOR
RUN-TO-RUN COMPARISONS...BUT IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH.
THE PRIMARY DAY OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DAY 6 /TUE MAR
02/...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS FL. TSTMS SHOULD AFFECT
THE FL PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SEVERITY REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE
OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION THAT WOULD SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA.
..PETERS.. 02/25/2010
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