SWOD48
SPC AC 260955
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2010
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS FL
TUESDAY MORNING/DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF 9 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WITH THE SYSTEM
TUESDAY SUGGESTING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. TWO UNCERTAINTIES FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN FL TUESDAY
INCLUDE INSTABILITY AND STORM MODE. IF SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND A SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THREAT
AREA MAY BE NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THE TIMING AND
POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. BEYOND
TUESDAY...THE MODELS FAIL TO RETURN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY/DAY 8. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE ECNTRL STATES BY FRIDAY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW FOR A SEVERE THREAT AREA LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 02/26/2010
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