SWOD48
SPC AC 280950
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2010
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY/DAY 5.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE MODELS FAIL TO RETURN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM SUGGESTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. ON THE HEELS
OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHARPLY DIVERGE
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL STATES
BY SUNDAY/DAY 8. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL STATES AT THAT TIME SUGGESTING UNCERTAINTY IS
SUBSTANTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
..BROYLES.. 02/28/2010
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