MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0096

ACUS11 KWNS 042341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042340
NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-050445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CST THU FEB 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 042340Z - 050445Z

THOUGH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET MAY INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE...A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROBABLE
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS FAR WRN NC...WITH THE HIGHEST RATES UP TO
0.02-0.08 IN/HR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY/BEYOND 06Z.

LARGE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OCCURRING AHEAD OF A DEEP SRN PLAINS
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT...FAVORING A
BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE LWR MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY REGION. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND E-NEWD INTO
WRN NC THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH RATES EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
/PARTICULARLY TOWARD 06Z/ AS STRONG WAA OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF A
40-50 KT S-SELY LLJ SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE REGION. RECENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN VA...WHICH WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING ELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE INVOF THE MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE COASTS. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR EMANATING FROM THE HIGH WILL FAVOR LOWERING WET BULB
TEMPERATURES OVER WRN NC...WHILE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS SUGGESTIVE OF
COLD AIR DAMMING...WHICH MAY ACT IN TANDEM TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUB ZERO SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO AS THE LLJ APPROACHES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN.

..GARNER.. 02/04/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 36018265 35488339 35078341 35058282 35388214 35958132
36468132 36248218 36018265

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