MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0104

ACUS11 KWNS 052359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052358
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-060400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...NERN WV...NRN VA...MUCH OF MD AND DE...AND
SRN NJ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 052358Z - 060400Z

INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 IN/HR ARE PROBABLE THROUGH 06Z
ACROSS SRN PA...NERN WV...NRN VA...MUCH OF MD/DE AND SRN NJ.

EJECTING UPPER S/W TROUGH OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH 06Z...WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
UNDERWAY /PER STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED IN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS/ ALONG COASTAL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. AREA VWP DATA
ALONG WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG SLY 850-700 MB JET NOSING INTO VA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE EWD DURING THE NIGHT...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER SRN NJ BY
06Z. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSE CONVERGENCE...WAA...AND DEEP
LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING STRONG UVV/S WITHIN A STEEP 5-8 KM
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 IN/HR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE
LOWEST 2-3 KM WILL RESIDE BETWEEN 0 TO -5 DEG C...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT FALLING SNOW WILL BE HEAVY/WET DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AGGREGATION.
IN ADDITION...AS SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS ALONG THE NC COAST...NELY
WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
MPH. THIS WOULD FAVOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO A QUARTER MILE WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

..GARNER.. 02/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39877971 40457918 40817807 40777663 40217490 39487439
38797487 38427571 38347703 38757894 39277953 39877971

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