MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0105

ACUS11 KWNS 060141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060140
NCZ000-060245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC...INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060140Z - 060245Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z. A WW IS
POSSIBLE.

01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEPENING SURFACE W OF ILM WITH 00Z RUC
GUIDANCE TAKING THIS FEATURE NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT TO VICINITY OF
ECG BY 06Z. INTENSE 2-HR PRESSURE FALLS /I.E. 5-7 MB/ OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LOW ARE SERVING TO: 1) ENHANCE THE WWD/NWWD FLUX OF
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ONSHORE FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND
2) MAINTAIN STRONGLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS OWING TO THE ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT.

00Z CHS/MHX SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER STABLE AIR
MASS EVEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...COMPARISON OF 00Z FFC SOUNDING TO THESE DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE TROPOSPHERIC COOLING IS
OCCURRING WITH THE NEWD EJECTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
SERN ATLANTIC STATES. THIS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH
THE MOISTENING AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF VERY MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WHICH IS BEING CONFIRMED BY THE RECENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WITH THE DEEPENING CONVECTION NEAR MYR.

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE /REF. CURRENT MHX/ILM
VWPS/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..MEAD.. 02/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34137850 34597850 35507665 36177545 35577467 34297621
33847807 34137850

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