SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211232
MOZ000-KSZ000-211730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS AND WRN/NRN MO.
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 211232Z - 211730Z
NARROW BELT OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH INTERMITTENT/EMBEDDED MODERATE
SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM CURRENT POSITION BETWEEN
HUT-OJC...INTO MKC-IRK. LIQUID RATES .1-.2 INCH/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
EPISODICALLY. RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION EXPECTED WITH NRN EXTENT...SNOW
BEING PRIMARILY N OF DISCUSSION AREA.
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE RAOB DATA OVER TX PANHANDLE -- EJECTS
ENEWD...PLUME OF PRECURSORY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND PRECIP NOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX TO ERN KS WILL DO LIKEWISE.
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THIS REGION IS FCST INVOF 291K
LEVEL...SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS OZARKS TO STL AREA THROUGH 18Z. THIS
CORRESPONDS ROUGHLY TO 800-900 MB LAYER...WITHIN WHICH WAA WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN DEEP SUPERFREEZING PROFILE ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN SE OF SFC
FREEZING LINE...WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 12Z FROM NEAR P28-EMP-20 S
OJC-BRL. NWRN FRINGES OF REGIME WILL BRUSH SFC TEMPS AOB 32 F.
EXPECT FREEZING LINE TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER KS AND WRN MO
THROUGH MOST OF REMAINDER OF MORNING. NWD DRIFT OF FREEZING LINE IS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MO DUE TO COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC
WAA...VERY SUBTLE DIABATIC HEATING...AND NET VERTICAL HEAT FLUX VIA
RELATIVELY WARM PRECIP FALLING INTO NEAR-SFC AIR MASS THAT IS
SATURATED OR VERY NEARLY SO...AND AS SUCH...OFFERING NEGLIGIBLE
EVAPORATIVE/WET-BULBING POTENTIAL FOR SUCH PRECIP OVER MOST OF
DISCUSSION AREA.
..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39349271 39039352 38749452 38349612 38269680 39119565
39539413 40009314 40579196 40039172 39659224 39349271
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