SWODY1
SPC AC 011252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST MON MAR 01 2010
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EWD OVER THE NRN GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A BELT OF
STRONG ASCENT PRECEDING THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET...WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SE TX ACROSS SRN LA TODAY...AND THE NE GULF
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MARGINAL
MOISTURE RETURN AND COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THE PAST SEVERAL FRONTAL INTRUSIONS HAVE DISPLACED THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS WELL SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND THE
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN CONSISTS OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS. PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT
SURFACE WARMING TODAY ACROSS SRN LA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD INCREASE ONLY INTO THE 50S BY LATER TODAY. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INLAND ACROSS SRN
LA...WHILE THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FROM
THE WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE. STILL...WILL KEEP
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR EXTREME SRN/SERN LA WHERE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INLAND WARM SECTOR WILL BE GREATEST.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/01/2010
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