DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020549
SWODY1
SPC AC 020548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON MAR 01 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...FL...
HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TIED TO AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/FL AND COASTAL CAROLINAS. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT...ONGOING BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY TODAY. THESE ONGOING EARLY DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION -- ESPECIALLY MORE
QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA --
BUT IT APPEARS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP INLAND EARLY TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FL KEYS. EVEN WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LOW
LEVEL VEERING BY 15Z-18Z IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE OFFSHORE GA/SC ATLANTIC WATERS...SIZABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BENEATH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT/ WILL
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS VIA
ANY QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR LINE-EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS MAINLY
THROUGH MIDDAY. THE LONGEST TEMPORAL OPPORTUNITY FOR A SEVERE
THREAT...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A FAST-MOVING QLCS...WILL LIKELY
EXIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

...CA...
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS
CA/NV TODAY AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE
ORE/NORTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION...AND MINORING NATURE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/LESS THAN OPTICAL TIMING THEREOF...SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE
RISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY OF NORTH-CENTRAL CA.

..GUYER/SMITH/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/02/2010

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