SWODY1
SPC AC 070544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY TURNING
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IN PHASE WITH A STRONG BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE
MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ANOTHER SPLITTING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH SUPPORTIVE OF
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN...PERHAPS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH A LINGERING CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND MUCH OF THE NATION EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. BUT...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER LOW...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...SOUTHWEST TEXAS/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...AND A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
TEXAS BIG BEND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOWER MID
50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PECOS VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE WARM/MOIST INTERFACE...AT LEAST
WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE APPEARS LIKELY...WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION IN
THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...UNTIL DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING
STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL...WEAKENING UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY MIGRATING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... APPEARS
TO BE STEADILY DECREASING. BUT...THE RISK FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY NOT YET BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
..KERR/GARNER.. 03/07/2010
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