SWODY1
SPC AC 091259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 09 2010
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CNTRL KS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT NNE AND WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS
UPSTREAM LOW NOW OVER THE SIERRA MOVES QUICKLY E/SE INTO ERN NM
...AND OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC CONTINUES SE INTO WA/ORE AND
NRN CA.
AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW WITH PLNS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NE INTO E
CNTRL KS BY EVE AND CNTRL IA BY 12Z WED. LEAD FRONT/CONFLUENCE ZONE
TRAILING SSW FROM THE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME QSTNRY OVER THE
MO/AR OZARKS AND NW LA BY TONIGHT AS A NEW LEE CYCLONE EVOLVES OVER
NE NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF SIERRA UPR SYSTEM.
...SE TX/LWR MS VLY...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN MODERATE SWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF LEAD COLD FRONT/CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER AR/LA
AND E TX TODAY/TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED UPR SYSTEM RETREATS NEWD.
LINGERING BAND OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW...AND CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STRONG /120 KT/ HI-LVL SUB-TROPICAL JET...WILL MAINTAIN
WIND PROFILES SUPPORT OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE
/PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ AND PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE.
WITH SOURCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVING NE INTO
MO...DEEP ASCENT ACROSS REGION MOST DIRECTLY MAY BE TIED TO PASSING
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN SUB-TROPICAL JET. ONE SUCH FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE OVER S TX ATTM...AND ANOTHER MAY AFFECT LA/SE TX EARLY
WED. EXPECTED WEAKENING OF SFC FRONT/CONFLUENCE AXIS SUGGESTS THAT
LOW-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BOUNDARIES FROM
CURRENT WAA CONVECTION/STORMS WILL...HOWEVER... ALSO BE PRESENT TO
ENHANCE LOW-LVL UPLIFT.
IN SUMMARY...SETUP APPEARS TO BE ONE OF A LOW CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS. GIVEN EXPECTED WIND/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BOTH
SVR HAIL AND TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD. WHILE ANY SVR THREAT LIKELY WOULD BE
GREATEST THIS AFTN AND EARLY TONIGHT...A LIMITED THREAT COULD
PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AS AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE
APPROACHES REGION.
...FAR ERN KS AND WRN/CNTRL MO...
COOL AIR ALOFT/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPR LOW SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR MAINTENANCE/DIURNAL
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION NOW OVER S CNTRL/SE KS AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES/DEVELOPS NEWD. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR AN APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT GIVEN RELATIVELY
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER/MODEST SFC DEWPOINTS. A COUPLE AFTN/EARLY EVE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/09/2010
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