SWODY1
SPC AC 121255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/ERN KY...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT AROUND LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO PERSIST GENERALLY OVER THE MID SOUTH. LEADING IMPULSE
IS SUSTAINING BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SRN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
LIFTING NEWD AND THEN NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIKEWISE PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL KY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP WLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
IN WAKE OF LEADING IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
AID IN SHIFTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS EWD WITH TIME.
...CENTRAL/ERN KY INTO PART OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIABATIC HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH NWD EJECTING IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THIS AREA TODAY.
WHEREVER HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED...MARGINAL SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP
AND SUSTAIN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING NNWWD THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL UPON
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
...S FL...
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS SOUTH FL AS VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS AHEAD OF SLOWLY SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING INVOF A FMY TO PBI GENERAL LINE AT 12Z. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM KMFL INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF SHEAR...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. REGARDLESS...APPEARS
CONDITIONAL RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND REMAINS
WARRANTED SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
...SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY AND FL PANHANDLE...
ONGOING STORMS MAY SUSTAIN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISK THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS THEY SHIFT INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH
ACTIVITY WEAKENING IN TIME. ADDITIONAL AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL ALREADY INCREASING OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA THROUGH THE MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST
AND SPREAD GENERALLY NEWD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE AS AXIS OF DEEP
ASCENT NOW MOVING ACROSS MS SPREADS EWD...12Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT MAY REMAIN MARGINAL AND
NOT WARRANT SUSTAINING CATEGORICAL SLGT ATTM. ADDITIONAL...MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORMS INVOF MID
LEVEL COLD POCKET SHIFTING INTO ERN MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON.
..EVANS/GARNER.. 03/12/2010
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