SWODY1
SPC AC 131221
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN VA INTO NC/NRN SC...
INTENSE UPPER LOW WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /I.E. H5
TEMPS AOB -22C/ WILL SHIFT STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BROAD AREA OF WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE CHESAPEAKE/MID
ATLANTIC REGION. REGARDLESS OF THE WLY FLOW...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
HEATING WILL DEVELOP FOR MODEST INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL/ERN NC INTO SERN VA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY REMAIN AOA 50F INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE LIMITED CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY INVOF AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD FAVOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CORES...AND LOCAL HAIL MODEL FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATES HAIL GREATER THAN 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS. ATTM...OVERALL POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...SRN UT AND NRN AZ...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD OUT OF CA AND INTO
NV...AND THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH FRONTAL FORCING WILL AID IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING WLY MOMENTUM IMPINGING UPON THE
FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..EVANS/GARNER.. 03/13/2010
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