SWODY1
SPC AC 261951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS...
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN SUBSIDENCE/WARMING
ALOFT AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS
SHOULD EXHIBIT LIMITED VIGOR SUCH THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES NO
LONGER APPEAR WARRANTED.
...ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
SPORADIC/LOW PROBABILITY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/FAR NORTHEAST
NM...SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO MAINLY PORTIONS OF KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SPATIALLY...THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WHERE ISENTROPIC ELEVATED MOIST
ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED ATOP A STABLE/RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
..GUYER.. 03/26/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010/
UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE SERN U.S. AS NEXT DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM
ROLLS EWD OUT OF INTERMOUNTAIN STATES INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT.
TRAILING FRONTAL BAND ACROSS SRN FL WILL SETTLE ONLY SLOWLY SWD
...POSSIBLY CLEARING THE KEYS BY 12Z SAT. AIR MASS S OF FRONT
CHARACTERIZED BY MDT BUT DIMINISHING WESTERLY FLOW...A MOIST BUT
ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER S FL THIS AFTERNOON AND
GIVEN THE 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE A LOW RISK OF
STRONG/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF SRN ROCKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING VIGOROUS TROUGH LOCATED THIS
MORNING SRN UT/NRN AZ. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT N OF DEEPENING OK/TX PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW. VERY
DRY WARM SECTOR SRN PLAINS PRECLUDES ANY CONCERN FOR SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
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