SWODY1
SPC AC 270524
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF
AR/MID-SOUTH...
...OZARKS TO LWR MS VLY...
VIGOROUS UPR LOW OVER OK WILL DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT ENE INTO THE LWR
OH VLY/MID-SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN MO...REACHING SRN IL BY 12Z
SUNDAY. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY AND NWRN GLFMEX.
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID 40S TO LWR 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NWD AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT INTO THE OZARKS AND LWR
MS VLY BY SATURDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE
MEAGER...COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...HEATING AND
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SFC-BASED STORMS WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ESE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT INTO THE
OZARKS/NRN LA DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN.
INITIAL STORMS OVER SERN KS/NERN OK WILL DEVELOP AMIDST FAIRLY STEEP
0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. SET-UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF LOW-TOPPED MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BRIEF
TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTN. THREAT APPEARS
SUFFICIENTLY ISOLD TO PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK ATTM.
MEANWHILE...TSTMS FARTHER S WILL FEED FROM A COMPARATIVELY MORE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRENGTH OF
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A BKN LINE OF STORMS BY EARLY
EVENING OVER CNTRL AR AND FAR N LA. AS THE LINE MATURES... EMBEDDED
BOWING STRUCTURES WILL YIELD SCTD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR. A PORTION OF THE
LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG/SVR ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST
WSW JET TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MID-EVENING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MS RVR INTO NWRN
MS AND WRN/MIDDLE TN MID-LATE EVENING AMIDST A COOLING/STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.
..RACY/ROGERS.. 03/27/2010
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