Thursday, March 25, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260047
SWODY1
SPC AC 260045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LWR TN RVR VLY...
SEGMENTED BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EWD
MOVING DRYLINE/TROUGH FROM MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL AL AT SUNSET.
STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE NRN PORTION OF A WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT. UVV MAX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND THE CURRENT SFC-BASED TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/NWRN GA
THROUGH MID-EVENING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD
TORNADO/DMGG WIND GUST ACROSS THE WRN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND
PORTIONS OF NE/ECNTRL AL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.

...CNTRL/NRN FL...
PER 00Z TPA SOUNDING...THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MCS HAS
MOISTENED DURING THE DAY...BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TEMPERING INSTABILITY. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT THE LINE OF
STORMS AS IT MOVES ESE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL...HOWEVER. TEMPORAL
VEERING OF THE SFC/MID-LAYER FLOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLD EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS THAT COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
WHERE THE MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCURRED THIS AFTN.

..RACY.. 03/26/2010

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