SWODY1
SPC AC 151926
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2010
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION OF SWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD
IN LINE WITH 1630Z FORECAST...THUS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THUNDER
LINE WERE REQUIRED.
..DARROW.. 03/15/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER SW NM WILL MOVE SEWD OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A BELT OF FOCUSED ASCENT E OF THE LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING /PER 12Z MAF SOUNDING
WITH MUCAPE OF 700 J/KG BASED 700-800 MB/. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...DRIER/COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR IS SPREADING SWWD TOWARD S
CENTRAL TX...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS UNLIKELY TO INCREASE MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SMALL AREA WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW SOME
SURFACE NEAR AND W-S OF SAT. GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL CAP NOTED IN THE
12Z DRT SOUNDING AND THE OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/FLOW
CHANGES...IT APPEARS THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
REMAIN ELEVATED AND OF MARGINAL INTENSITY...SUCH THAT DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE UNLIKELY.
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