SWODY1
SPC AC 081258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI
PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW NOW ON THE AZ/NM BORDER WILL CONTINUE ENE TO THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVE...AND INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z TUE AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW APPROACHING ORE/NRN CA EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SIERRA. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN SE QUADRANT OF AZ/NM LOW WILL
REACH N CNTRL TX/CNTRL OK THIS EVE AND THE MO/AR OZARKS EARLY TUE.
AT THE SFC...LEE LOW NOW IN NE NM/SE CO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY E ROUGHLY
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES E INTO CNTRL AND...EVENTUALLY...ERN
PORTIONS OF OK/TX.
...SW KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN N TX...
IN WAKE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ENE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...SFC
HEATING AND DPVA IN DRY SLOT OF AZ/NM UPR LOW EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
NEW ROUND OF SCTD/BROKEN STORMS THIS AFTN OVER THE NRN/ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP N
AND NE INTO PARTS OF SE CO...SW KS...AND WRN OK A BIT LATER IN THE
DAY. COLD MID LVL TEMPERATURES ATOP NARROW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED
LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUSION SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE
AROUND 750 J/KG. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH HAIL AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 OR THE LOW 50S F.
NARROW NATURE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE ZONE...AND MODEST MOISTURE VALUES
/PW BELOW 1 INCH/...SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...SEVERAL SVR HAIL EVENTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVE.
IN ADDITION...A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO IN AREA OF BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW JUST E/NE OF SFC
LOW/OCCLUSION.
...PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN/SE TX...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVE OVER CNTRL TX
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LWR 60S F. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK AS STRONGEST DPVA WITH AZ/NM UPR SYS TRACKS N OF THE REGION.
CONVECTION/SCTD WAA TSTMS LIKELY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL...POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON WRN FRINGES OF EXISTING ACTIVITY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS FRONT CONTINUES EWD BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG WSW
MID/UPR LVL FLOW. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL DESPITE PRESENCE OF DEEP SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH WDLY SCTD
HAIL/WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR...ATTM THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO LIMITED
TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VLY...
A FEW TSTMS...ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY WITH SMALL HAIL...MAY FORM OVER
THE NRN SACRAMENTO VLY THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/08/2010
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