SWODY1
SPC AC 071611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2010
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
UPR LOW HAS TURNED EWD AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN CA/BAJA CA
BORDER THIS AM. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WELL DEFINED ON BOTH
COMPOSITE RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SPREADING E/NEWD ACROSS
SWRN AZ/NWRN SONORA.
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE LEE OF SRN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPR LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUED TO SPREAD INCREASING
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT THRU WRN TX/ERN
NM.
LITTLE INHERENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN GIVEN THE VERY MODIFIED SOURCE REGION...THUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LINKED TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH MUCAPE NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...PRIMARILY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAVORABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7C/KM SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ONCE
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WITH 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STORMS COULD TEMPORARILY ROTATE ENHANCING BOTH HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL.
..HALES/PETERS.. 03/07/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment