SWODY1
SPC AC 021615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2010
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN FL...
DESPITE INTENSE SRN STREAM SYSTEM OVERSPREADING THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
MORNING...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST LATER TODAY...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF BROKEN
LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS MOVING INTO SRN FL LATE THIS MORNING.
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE FROM H85-H7 EVIDENT ON MORNING
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED TROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURN...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INHIBIT AVAILABLE MLCAPE ACROSS SRN
FL TODAY. STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED INLAND...WITH
STRONGER CORES BACK-BUILDING/REMAINING OFF THE SWRN FL COAST. THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOWER TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE KEYS AND INTO SERN FL DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN PRONOUNCED
AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...SHOULD BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS BECOME MODESTLY BUOYANT. HOWEVER...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.. ALTHOUGH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80F...AND VEERING FLOW AT
THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST TO OCCUR
PRIOR TO ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
...CENTRAL CA VALLEYS INTO NV...
AN INITIAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD OVER
CENTRAL/NRN CA AND NW NV TODAY...WHILE A STRONGER UPSTREAM LOW
APPROACHES NRN CA EARLY WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
IN THE NRN SAN JOAQUIN/SACRAMENTO VALLEYS...AND E OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE INTO WRN NV LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..EVANS/ROGERS/JEWELL.. 03/02/2010
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