SWODY2
SPC AC 010547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FLORIDA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH FL
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... A WELL-DEFINED 45
TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE FL
PENINSULA AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CONVECTION WILL FIRST BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE SWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG IN SERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S F SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE MODELS FAIL TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS MUCH. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAST FORWARD SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE POTENTAIL FOR WIND DAMAGE IN A NARROW
WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MID 60S F SFC
DEWPOINTS CAN MATERIALIZE IN THE MIAMI AREA TUESDAY...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE COULD BE LOCALLY GREATER.
..BROYLES.. 03/01/2010
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