SWODY2
SPC AC 040544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST WED MAR 03 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL PLAINS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 45 TO 55 KT SHOULD
BE LOCATED IN THE CNTRL PLAINS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NW KS AND SW NEB ON THE
WRN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN THE
CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NW KS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOW MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -22 TO -24 C. THIS
ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT ISOLATED. AT THIS TIME...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT STILL APPEARS CONDITIONAL. ONCE CERTAINTY
INCREASES...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
REGION.
..BROYLES.. 03/04/2010
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