SWODY2
SPC AC 151641
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PACIFIC NW...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT INLAND ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
12HR HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 90-150M WILL CONTRIBUTE MARKEDLY
TO A TIGHT PROGRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FOCUSED UVV. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD
APPROACH 100-200 J/KG. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR ALONG/WEST OF COASTAL RANGE WHERE MARINE LAYER
WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE WEAK BUOYANCY NEEDED FOR DEEPER UPDRAFTS.
...ELSEWHERE...
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SERN TX WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER
SPEED MAX. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SPATIAL COVERAGE WILL WARRANT A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 03/15/2010
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