SWODY2
SPC AC 160423
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT MON MAR 15 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...NOW
LIFTING TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL
PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE CASCADES AND CANADIAN ROCKIES BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD. A LEAD
IMPULSE WITHIN THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO FLATTEN THE CREST OF A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AS A TRAILING
IMPULSE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM FLOW. MEANWHILE...BROAD
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE U.S...AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC
REGIME...A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A DRYING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. IN FACT...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
DESPITE THE LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING LIKELY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. CAPE WILL BE WEAK...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MAY ALSO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
...WESTERN STATES...
DAYTIME HEATING IN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE INLAND ADVANCING MID-LEVEL COLD POOL...EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
..KERR.. 03/16/2010
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