SWODY2
SPC AC 250507
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SERN STATES
THURSDAY THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY
FRIDAY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES REACHING THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES
SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE AND TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
...FL PENINSULA...
CONVECTION MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS CNTRL FL EARLY FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN WAKE OF DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AS IT EXITS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUT 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH S FL. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BETWEEN
600-500 MB...IMPLYING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DESPITE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A
FEW STORMS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF 40 KT WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING/SPLITTING STORMS...MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS.
..DIAL.. 03/25/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment