SWODY3
SPC AC 250706
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AS OF EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE
SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD THROUGH OK OR SRN KS DURING THE DAY...REACHING
THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
...SERN KS...ERN OK...NERN TX...AR AND NRN LA...
THE SHORT WAVELENGTH BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS WILL LIMIT
QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING EAST OF LEE CYCLONE WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED CP AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...BENEATH EWD ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES. THIS PROCESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY OVER ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. WARM SECTOR WILL BE
STRONGLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...DEEP AND STRONG FORCING ALONG PORTION OF
ADVANCING FRONT LOCATED WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM SERN KS THROUGH ERN OK AND
NERN TX. THE CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...AND ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 03/25/2010
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