SWOD48
SPC AC 010949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST MON MAR 01 2010
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS ON THURSDAY/DAY4. ON
FRIDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS QUICKLY MOVE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
MODELS SHARPLY DIVERGE WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY/DAY 7 WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CNTRL STATES. THE ECMWF DOES DEVELOP THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES ABOUT 36 HOURS LATER. IN SPITE
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM IN THE GREAT PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY OR MONDAY WOULD
DEPEND UPON SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND EARLY TIMING WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
..BROYLES.. 03/01/2010
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