SWOD48
SPC AC 020957
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST TUE MAR 02 2010
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY/DAY 4. THIS FEATURE EJECTS QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS THE MODELS BRING AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE WRN
STATES. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ACROSS CA BY SUNDAY/DAY 6. IF THE FASTER GFS IS CORRECT AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SPITE OF A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER
BUT HAS THE SAME GENERAL SCENARIO. FOR THESE CASES...A SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH
A SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES BY
TUESDAY/DAY 8. AT THIS POINT...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TOO VARIANT
AND THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS TOO QUESTIONABLE TO
WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.
..BROYLES.. 03/02/2010
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