SWOD48
SPC AC 040959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST THU MAR 04 2010
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING
MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL
SOLUTION. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BEGIN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT SPREADING EWD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SFC DEWPOINTS MAY
REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX. THIS WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR A SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A SQUALL-LINE CAN
ORGANIZE IN NORTH TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY/DAY 5. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TUESDAY/DAY 6 BUT KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE CNTRL GULF COAST. STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST BUT A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THAT RANGE CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THE
EJECTING SYSTEM. THE MORE FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA
WOULD BE ON MONDAY/DAY 5 IN THE ARKLATEX. AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS TOO GREAT CONCERNING MOISTURE RETURN FOR A SEVERE THREAT
AREA FOR THE DAY 4 TO 8 OUTLOOK.
..BROYLES.. 03/04/2010
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