SWOD48
SPC AC 070959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2010
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AIDED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
INITIALLY PREVAIL IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH THE INITIAL FOCUS ON
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH
TX/ARKLATEX VICINITY TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY.
WHILE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS JUXTAPOSED WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IT DOES SEEM THAT AN
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST TX
TO THE NEIGHBORING ARKLATEX VICINITY/PERHAPS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED VARIABILITY/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY
PRECLUDES 30% DAY 1 EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXIST DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 03/07/2010
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