SWOD48
SPC AC 280800
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2010
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE FCST ACROSS CONUS
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER APPALACHIANS REGION AND MEAN TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER WRN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL/SRN CA THEN EWD ACROSS AZ/NM DAYS
5-6/1ST-3RD. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IS EVIDENT WITHIN MREF SUITE
AND BETWEEN OPERATIONAL PROGS...WHERE SPECTRAL/UKMET FAVOR FASTER
TROUGH TRANSLATION AND SLOWER EMBEDDED CYCLOGENESIS ALOFT...WHILE
ECMWF PREDICTS CYCLONE CLOSURE FARTHER W WITH LATER MOVEMENT OF THIS
PERTURBATION ACROSS SRN ROCKIES. DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...MOST
PROGS REASONABLY EJECT DEAMPLIFYING VERSION OF THIS TROUGH NEWD BY
LATE DAY-7/3RD-4TH. MEANWHILE...PROGS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT
SLOW-MOVING HEIGHT WEAKNESS OVER SERN GULF...CUBA AND YUCATAN
REGION...S OF MS/AL ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...WILL YIELD REX PATTERN
ACROSS SERN NORTH AMERICA. SEVERAL DAYS OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERMIT STG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO BUILD OVER WRN CONUS AND ADVECT
TO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...ATOP UNCERTAIN QUALITY OF RETURN-FLOW
MOISTURE. WHILE AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT IS QUITE LIKELY OVER SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF EJECTING SWRN TROUGH...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
ABOVE...IT IS TOO SOON TO OUTLINE AOA 30% UNCONDITIONAL SVR RISK FOR
ANY OF THESE SPECIFIC DAYS.
..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2010
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