SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080306
TXZ000-NMZ000-080430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/SE NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080306Z - 080430Z
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB JET /UP
TO 30 KT/...BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...
APPEARED TO HAVE INVIGORATED STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE BEEN AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD TOP RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH CONTINUED
SURFACE COOLING...AND STORMS PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT
THIS COULD ALREADY BE UNDERWAY...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOL SOUTHWEST OF CLOVIS MAY NOT YET
BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 03/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34370434 34900423 35010313 33950286 33050311 32360360
32400432 33540404 34370434
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