SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081808
TXZ000-OKZ000-081945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND SW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081808Z - 081945Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND SW OK. A THREAT FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
LINE-SEGMENTS.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FROM EAST OF CHILDRESS SWD TO NEAR
ABILENE IS LOCATED ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MEASURING SBCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE
STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LINE OF STORMS EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOW 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES.. 03/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32089821 31669936 32199966 32889990 34009963 34889962
35319922 35339871 34749820 33869795 33249810 32089821
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