MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0160

ACUS11 KWNS 081943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081942
TXZ000-OKZ000-082115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH AND CNTRL TX...SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081942Z - 082115Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NORTH TX
AND SW OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN THE LINE
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD
TO AROUND BRADY IS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE LINE
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST TO THE EAST
AND IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE EWD ACROSS THE
DALLAS...FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WSR-88D VWP
FROM FORT WORTH CURRENTLY SHOWS 40 TO 45 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SFC. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE AT 35 KT WILL
RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AROUND FORT WORTH ALSO SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES.. 03/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31739869 31339872 31129836 31299778 32439700 33929705
34859754 35179820 35149882 34839908 34329876 33529848
32649840 31739869

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