SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101344
TXZ000-OKZ000-101545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL TX...EXTREME SWRN/S-CENTRAL
OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101344Z - 101545Z
INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS IS LIKELY THROUGH
MID-MORNING LOCAL TIME...OR APPROXIMATELY 15Z...FROM PORTIONS NW AND
N-CENTRAL TX TO VICINITY RED RIVER REGION...POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING OR
DEVELOPING SWD TO PORTIONS CENTRAL TX AS WELL. INITIAL POTENTIAL IS
MRGL FOR HAIL...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT FOR
BOTH HAIL AND CONVECTIVE GUSTS.
MAINLY MIDLEVEL CONVECTION HAS INITIATED IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX INVOF DYS...WHERE 850 MB SWLYS HAVE
BEEN EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER WINDS AND SFC DEW POINTS
INITIALLY WERE IN 30S F. HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF RELATIVELY MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD...IN PROJECTED
PATH OF STG LARGE-SCALE UVV ZONE AHEAD OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE MOVING
EWD ACROSS ERN NM AND ASSOCIATED WITH GROWING CONVECTIVE PLUME.
RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AS UVV BELT ENCOUNTERS NWRN FRINGE OF RICHER
MOISTURE...AND SFC HEATING STEEPENS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MID-LATE
MORNING...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE/EXPAND FURTHER AND BECOME NEARLY
SFC-BASED...WITH INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE FARTHER S OVER HILL COUNTRY.
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT MISLEADING IN THAT MAF/FWD RAOBS DID
NOT SAMPLE RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE WELL...AND AS SUCH CONTAIN NO CAPE.
SIMILAR CAPE DEFICIENCY IS EVIDENT EVEN IN RUC NEAR-TERM FCST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION...THOUGH PRESENCE OF TSTMS IN ACTUALITY
CONFIRMS OTHERWISE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRENGTHENING OVER THIS
REGION WITH APCH OF TIGHTEST HEIGHT GRADIENTS PRECEDING UPPER
VORTEX...AS EVIDENT IN 6 KM AGL WINDS INCREASING FROM AROUND 55 KT
AROUND DYS TO 70 KT AT JTN PROFILER.
..EDWARDS.. 03/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 33509929 34089863 34319816 34489729 34099669 32769661
30719753 29789820 29949866 31499917 32689925 33509929
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