MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0202

ACUS11 KWNS 211916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211915
FLZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211915Z - 212045Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH 20-21Z ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

A RELATIVE MAXIMA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED COINCIDENT
WITH RECENT CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...SOUTH OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED/CONVECTIVE LINE
INDUCED RAIN-COOLED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE LINE...SOME QUASI-DISCRETE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SEBRING/AVON
PARK. WHILE A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND 700-800 MB NOTED PER A 16Z XMR
OBSERVED RAOB/MORE RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS MAY STILL BE CAPPING MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR...NEAR SURFACE CINH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE
GIVEN CLOUD BREAKS COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED STEADY NORTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL/STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILES PER MLB/TBW DERIVED WSR-88D VWP DATA...SUPPORTS SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AT LEAST IN AN ISOLATED SENSE. THIS WOULD BE VIA
QUASI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF/STORM MERGERS WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR LINE-EMBEDDED TYPE CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS/POSSIBLY A TORNADO...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST VICINITY SEA BREEZE.

..GUYER.. 03/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 28078108 28208067 27918045 27178037 26218118 26818172
28078108

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