SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242329
OKZ000-TXZ000-250030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34...
VALID 242329Z - 250030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34
CONTINUES.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL SHIFT SWD
INTO CNTRL TX LATER THIS EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WW.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE ANALYZED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS N CNTRL TX...INCLUDING THE
DFW METROPLEX DURING THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
NARROW INSTABILITY/THETA-E CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
STRONGER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER S ACROSS CNTRL TX...WHILE
STORMS N OF DFW HAVE EXHIBITED A NOTABLE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
PAST HOUR.
WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND
500 J/KG MUCAPE AND WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED FARTHER S IN CNTRL TX.
HOWEVER...INCREASING FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE WEAK...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. A MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REQUIRE AN
ADDITIONAL WW.
..ROGERS.. 03/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...
LAT...LON 30939840 32269808 33449719 33679666 33949599 31139727
30669782 30939840
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