SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250715
LAZ000-ARZ000-250815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250715Z - 250815Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE. THEREAFTER...SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
QLCS WHICH EVOLVED EARLIER OVER ERN TX HAS SINCE ACCELERATED TO
50-55 KT WHILE PROGRESSING THROUGH NWRN LA. WHILE RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RESIDUAL CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML /REF. 25/00Z SHV SOUNDING FOR THE
PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE/...REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY RECEIVED. SHV BASE VELOCITY DATA INDICATE CHANNELS OF HIGH
MOMENTUM FLOW OVER SRN CLAIBORNE AND BIENVILLE PARISHES AS OF
0705Z...AND THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY WHERE THE GREATEST THREATS FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXIST.
06Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES QLCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /I.E. 60-63 F/...WITH DECREASING
MOISTURE CONTENT EWD INTO W-CNTRL MS. MCS MAY WELL CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH NERN LA INTO W-CNTRL MS BETWEEN 08-10Z. HOWEVER...BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED DIMINISHING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..MEAD.. 03/25/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31569342 32179324 32679324 33109310 33229246 33179177
32469130 31679163 31269211 31309294 31569342
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