MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0214

ACUS11 KWNS 252150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252150
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KY...SE MO...FAR NE AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35...

VALID 252150Z - 252315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PART OF WW 35
APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WATCH EXPIRATION AT 00Z. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND
ACROSS NW AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG CORES. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED THIS EVENING AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST
OF WW 35.

NUMEROUS DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ORGANIZED ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM A LOW IN SW KY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S F. THIS IS
LIMITING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIFT IS QUITE
STRONG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WELL-DEFINED EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...THE
MID-LEVEL JET IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
THIS MAY AID THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF A PERSISTENT
LINE-SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP.

..BROYLES.. 03/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32798692 32868741 33028740 33028784 33118782 32998821
33008832 33738824 33658869 33748868 33808893 33688909
33748949 33878946 33898992 34168993 34189018 34399021
34839022 35009030 35109017 35179006 35439035 35979029
36029036 36359005 36599030 36649004 36598964 36858966
37088925 36938879 36978824 37148820 37198803 36988787
36968772 37168763 37058706 36638709 36648654 36408676
36148653 35758669 35378667 35148639 34688636 34498647
34538653 34338655 34158636 33928630 33828654 33478642
33208643 33088654 33058666 33098688 32868693 32878726
32798692

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