SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280047
ARZ000-MOZ000-280145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR AND SE MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...
VALID 280047Z - 280145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
CONTINUES.
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD ACROSS MUCH OF
AR AND SRN MO. SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN RADAR
IMAGERY WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS CNTRL AR. DESPITE WARM BL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE HAS LIMITED MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500-700
J/KG.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE WATCH AREA...AS STRONGLY FORCED
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED
FARTHER S ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AR...WHERE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED . INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ...COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LARGE SFC T-TD DEFICITS OF 15 TO 20 DEG F...WILL ALLOW
FOR AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
..ROGERS.. 03/28/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 33639208 34339206 35389172 36359144 36729137 36869114
36869065 36789030 36569000 36209006 35579039 33979129
33499174 33519210 33639208
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