MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0221

ACUS11 KWNS 282320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282319
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-290045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SUN MAR 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...WRN SC...CNTRL/SRN NC PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 37...

VALID 282319Z - 290045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 37 CONTINUES.

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STG-SVR TSTMS HAS BEEN ALONG A RESIDUAL WEDGE
FRONT ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT OF NC. MOST OF THE
STORMS ARE ROOTING ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT ISOLD STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL
NC PIEDMONT...BEFORE RIDING NWD AND BECOMING ELEVATED. THIS
CORRIDOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GENERATION ZONE FOR TSTMS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS THE TAIL-END OF THE MID-LVL WAVE GRAZES THE REGION.
PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A FEW STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO THRIVE E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
TORNADO/DMGG WIND RISKS AMIDST 0-1KM SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2. A
COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE MIGRATED NE OF THE WATCH OVER CNTRL NC WITH A
REPORTED TORNADO NEAR LEXINGTON NC. REGION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
ERN PIEDMONT TRIAD INTO EXTREME SCNTRL VA MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN DMGG WIND/TORNADO THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING AND MAY NEED A
SMALL WATCH SHORTLY.

MEANWHILE...A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXISTS FROM ABOUT 40 S OF
KATL NEWD INTO ERN PARTS OF UPSTATE SC. BKN BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE
TO FORM INVOF THIS FEATURE AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS THE NEXT MID-LVL
WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. VWPS EXHIBIT A
COMPARATIVELY MORE STRAIGHT-LINED HODOGRAPH ACROSS CNTRL GA THAN
POINTS TO THE NE...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS. AS
SUCH...SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS STORMS MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE SAVANNAH RIVER VLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE SC
MIDLANDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGER AND THE RISK FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE.

..RACY.. 03/28/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 34778440 35538233 36327966 35767918 34507957 33238110
32408208 32458383 32418480 34778440

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