SWODY1
SPC AC 030524
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SAT APR 03 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THE LATTER HALF...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
BEYOND THE NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
WEAK FLOW/FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE ANY
CONVECTION THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE GULF STATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED.
...CNTRL GULF STATES TO OH VALLEY...
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER MO/AR AT 12Z
WILL EJECT QUICKLY INTO THE OH VALLEY BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY EVENING. A FOCUSED ZONE OF SCALE ASCENT WILL
OVERSPREAD A REGION OF MEAGER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY WILL AID A BAND OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN LIGHTNING FREE AS PARCELS STRUGGLE TO REACH LEVELS NECESSARY
FOR CHARGE SEPARATION WITHIN POOR PRE-FRONTAL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. AS FLOW VEERS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IL INTO WRN IND. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL BE
VERY WEAK AND IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER ANY ISOLATED STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD EVEN BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL LARGE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER SOUTH...EARLY MORNING BAND OF CONVECTION...ALONG SRN FRINGE
OF EJECTING TROUGH...WILL SAG ESEWD ACROSS MS/AL BEFORE WEAKENING BY
18-20Z TIME FRAME. PARCEL LIFT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND WITHIN A VERY POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS SEVERE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
..DARROW/GRAMS.. 04/03/2010
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