SWODY1
SPC AC 290540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...A
POTENT MID-LVL WAVE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE GRT BASIN REGION EARLY
THURSDAY INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY NIGHTFALL.
AT THE SFC...A FRONT DECELERATING ACROSS THE DKTS...NW KS AND THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESUME A ESE TRANSLATION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A DOMINANT SFC LOW MIGRATES TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY. PORTIONS OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
...UPR MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TX HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
RAPIDLY TRANSPORTED NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY BENEATH
A STRONG CAP ON THURSDAY. BY LATE AFTN...MID/UPR 50S SFC DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMMON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WITH CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG.
AS AFOREMENTIONED PV-ANOMOLY SWINGS NEWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES
EARLY THURSDAY AFTN...HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WITH ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. MORE ROBUST DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE MID-LATE AFTN IN WRN IA AND ERN NEB AND
EXPAND SWD INTO AT LEAST NCNTRL/NERN KS AS THE EML MOISTENS/COOLS
VIA DEEP-LAYER ASCENT.
50+KT SLY H92/85 FLOW VEERING TO 75+KT SWLY H5 WINDS WILL BOOST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO OVER 65 KTS AND WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY. 0-1KM SRH WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE
OWING TO NOCTURNAL ACCELERATION OF THE LLJ. SFC TEMP/DEW-POINT
SPREADS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT INITIATION...BUT WILL LOWER
COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS...ISOLD TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS.
OTHERWISE...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES/SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE
HAIL AND SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS LATER
THURSDAY EVENING AND ADVANCE E TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY AND THE LWR MO
VLY WITH AT LEAST ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY
WILL FAVOR SRN END OF THE LINE AMIDST STRONGER INSTABILITY.
..RACY/BOTHWELL.. 04/29/2010
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