Monday, April 12, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130101
SWODY1
SPC AC 130100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND INTO W
CENTRAL MN...

...ND INTO W CENTRAL MN...
THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND VICINITY...N OF A WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ESEWD FROM
SRN SD ACROSS IA AND INTO NRN IL. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD...AND AN INTENSIFYING
SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE THE INGREDIENTS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF THE ELEVATED STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.

...SERN NM...
A FEW STRONGER CELLS PERSIST ACROSS SERN NM...WHERE UPSLOPE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH
MODEST CAPE SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT STORM INTENSITY...SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR A STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFT OR TWO WARRANTS KEEPING 5% HAIL
PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 04/13/2010

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