SWODY1
SPC AC 201208
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CDT TUE APR 20 2010
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
OVERALL SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO GET MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD...
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
FLOW WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY NW ALOFT WITH SLOW MOVING IMPULSE
DIGGING SEWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD AID
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK
VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST / SBCAPE TO 1000-1300 J/KG
/... DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH
STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. STRONGEST
STORMS SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL NEAR OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
STRONG GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO
A SMALL MCS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT SEWD INTO PARTS OF KS/OK ALONG
NOSE OF 35+ KT SSWLY LLJ. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HINDERED BY REMNANT COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH AN UPGRADE TO A SLGT RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GREATER INSTABILITY BECOME EVIDENT.
...WRN GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
STRONG MID/UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS CA/WRN NV THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS VERY
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FROM THE SRN CA/MEXICO BORDER
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECEDING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY...WEAK INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT.THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY FOSTER SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD WITHIN
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
..EVANS/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/20/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment