SWODY2
SPC AC 040554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-UPR MS
VLY/CORN BELT...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MODEST BELT OF WSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE GRTLKS REGION ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS JET...EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ERN PAC
UPR TROUGH. A LEAD DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER NV...WILL BE EXITING THE
GRTLKS REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER IMPULSES ADVANCING
FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTN/NIGHT.
...MID/UPR MS VLY/CORN BELT...
A STRONG ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER WILL SURGE NWD TOWARD THE REGION ON
MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE.
BUILDING HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF AN EARLY DAY UPR WAVE AND A LIKELY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY RENDER THE NWD ADVANCING WRMFNT
INERT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION FROM CNTRL/SRN IND/IL WWD
TO NRN MO. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
MORE CONFIDENT SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS
AFTER DARK AS THE SWLY LLJ BEGINS TO RESPOND TO THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER MID-LVL IMPULSE. H85 JET OF 60-70 KTS IMPINGING ON THE
WRMFNT WILL YIELD VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILES FROM ERN NEB
AND IA TO THE UPR MS VLY. GIVEN 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED TO
NARROW SVR PROBABILITIES TO LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...NEARLY-SFC BASED
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN IA WITH ADDED
DMGG WIND/TORNADO RISKS.
SVRL NOCTURNAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
REACHING NRN IL/SRN WI AND LWR MI BY 12Z TUESDAY. SVR THREATS WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLD AT MORE ELY LONGITUDES DURING THE NIGHT.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTN/EVE AND THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
DEEPEN AMIDST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL
KS. THIS MAY WEAKEN CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TSTM OR
TWO...MOST LIKELY IN NWRN OK OR SWRN KS WHERE MLCAPE WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. STRONG EML IN
PLACE WILL LIMIT NUMBER OF STORMS WITH ACTIVITY PROBABLY ONLY
SURVIVING A FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING OVER SCNTRL KS/NCNTRL-WRN OK.
..RACY.. 04/04/2010
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