SWODY2
SPC AC 100521
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
VERY WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARD THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST LATE. OTHERWISE...A
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER BEFORE EJECTING/WEAKENING INTO A BROAD
ZONE OF MID CONTINENT HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS CONTINUE EARLIER TRENDS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF MARGINAL GOM MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS TX
ALONG WRN FRINGE OF PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONE. WITH TIME 50S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 60F SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN NWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...PERHAPS INTERCEPTING A WEAKENING/RETREATING WARM FRONT
ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER LATE. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG W TX DRYLINE...EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COOL BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY APPROACH 1500 J/KG WITHIN
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY STORM SCALE PROCESSES
PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.
FARTHER NORTH INTO KS...MEAN FLOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER...AS
WILL LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP INTO THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT...THEREFORE AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 04/10/2010
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