SWODY2
SPC AC 131709
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...WILL
MIGRATE INTO MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS SUBTLE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES
TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NWRN MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPR LOW OFF THE
ORE COAST.
..PLAINS/UPR MS VLY...
WEDNESDAY/S TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WRN PERIPHERY
OF A PERSISTENT HIGH CELL ANCHORED OVER THE GULF STATES. MULTI-DAY
DEEP ELY FLOW ACROSS THE GLFMEX WAS TRANSPORTING A MODIFIED AIR MASS
THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VLY INTO CNTRL/ERN NM THEN NEWD AHEAD OF A
WEAK LEE TROUGH/CDFNT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. CLOUD
DEBRIS/RESIDUAL SHOWERS EMANATING FROM TUESDAY/S TSTMS WILL EXIST
WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...MITIGATING STRONG INSTABILITY
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...BUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID/LWR MO VLY AND
POINTS NWD.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS. COMBINATION OF DIABATIC
HEATING AND MOIST ESELY UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM
INITIATION ACROSS FAR W TX AND NM BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTN. OTHER
STORMS WILL FORM ALONG ERN/SRN FRINGES OF MORNING CONVECTION FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VLY.
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
UPR MS VLY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS...LOW SVR PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN EXPANDED NEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRONGER SHEAR. ISOLD STORMS COULD POSE A DMGG WIND THREAT.
FARTHER S...0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE...THOUGH
MODEST VEERING PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLD BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL. ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE TX/NM HIGH PLAINS WITH
ISOLD THREATS FOR DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY RNFL.
..PAC NW...
GEN TSTM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED OVER PARTS OF ORE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT COMPLEX UPR LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL EDGE INLAND DURING
PEAK HEATING. H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-MINUS 20S COMBINED WITH
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVE...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.
.RACY.. 04/13/2010
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