SWODY2
SPC AC 211645
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY EARLY MORNING
MODEL GUIDANCE. BROAD H5 CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A BIMODAL
STRUCTURE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY 23/12Z. ONE SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF
THIS TROUGH SHOULD EJECT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WHILE STRONG FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN MEXICO
MAINTAINING A SECONDARY CIRCULATION OVER SRN AZ. THE LEAD EXIT
REGION OF H5 SPEED MAX SHOULD ENCOURAGE LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER CO WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BACKED ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE TRAILING DRYLINE SHOULD
NOT SURGE EWD TO ANY GREAT DEGREE...ULTIMATELY MIXING TO NEAR THE
CAP ROCK OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AS STRONG HEATING REMAINS CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN. IN RESPONSE TO THE NRN MEXICO SPEED MAX IT APPEARS
THE DRYLINE MAY ACTUALLY RETREAT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.
LATEST THINKING IS A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND SUBSEQUENT ZONE OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX...NWD INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS A SMALL ZONE
OF ECNTRL CO BY PEAK HEATING. WHILE EARLY MORNING WARM ADVECTION
MAY DRIVE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS CO/KS/NRN OK...STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGER INSTABILITY. EWD
MOVEMENT OFF THE DRYLINE SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LOWER
SUFFICIENTLY FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ALONG THE ERN PLUME OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES. MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE
REGION OF PLAINS SPEED MAX MAY CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO UPWARD GROWTH
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NW OF SJT...NEWD INTO OK AFTER
DARK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...AIDED IN PART DUE TO
INCREASING LLJ...AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..DARROW.. 04/21/2010
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